Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 39.063158 42.465194 46.233596 50.759699 56.106793 62.299845 70.133979
2025-08-10 33.992532 38.297998 43.387612 49.981239 58.512384 69.517728 85.435358
2025-08-17 30.890130 35.502743 41.161410 48.831855 59.344643 73.936376 97.253353
2025-08-24 28.604366 33.376547 39.400691 47.866209 60.035607 78.040591 109.635629
2025-08-31 26.947757 31.839457 38.164082 47.331601 61.081402 82.671633 124.276001
2025-09-07 26.000167 31.111730 37.884743 48.026991 63.955843 90.719754 148.590712
2025-09-14 24.791635 29.930049 36.857778 47.478588 64.741061 95.315441 168.164679
2025-09-21 23.504621 28.552075 35.440407 46.179096 64.074185 97.051745 182.000204
2025-09-28 22.411460 27.374100 34.220712 45.057350 63.535684 98.893083 197.394556
2025-10-05 22.325021 27.578446 34.991549 47.106455 68.821093 114.072374 267.550148
2025-10-12 21.932030 27.319544 35.050495 47.996017 72.126612 126.110879 347.281392
2025-10-19 21.636235 27.177518 35.265432 49.153133 76.141157 141.528257 485.475696
2025-10-26 21.018596 26.572460 34.786421 49.173080 78.092455 153.112684 664.586140
2025-11-02 20.271515 25.744218 33.913893 48.427356 78.331391 160.058730 867.799656
2025-11-09 19.515747 24.865747 32.906509 47.340347 77.632995 163.818356 1093.334155
2025-11-16 18.851635 24.096620 32.032070 46.424107 77.191374 168.435723 1461.504002
2025-11-23 18.318831 23.502875 31.407102 45.916945 77.626615 176.609670 2357.445600
2025-11-30 18.053117 23.301265 31.404229 46.576718 80.979990 198.527876 12873.674911
2025-12-07 17.580470 22.762489 30.816267 46.056419 81.311661 208.159520 NaN
2025-12-14 17.003474 22.043321 29.897068 44.822600 79.635428 207.657351 NaN
2025-12-21 16.487887 21.404093 29.087247 43.756523 78.279732 208.345206 NaN
2025-12-28 16.537918 21.643869 29.761991 45.703220 85.361478 260.746903 NaN
2026-01-04 16.389973 21.565493 29.888960 46.547343 89.634677 305.544009 NaN